Related Course/s:

Aims & Objectives:

Students who complete this unit of study should be able to:

• Identify the nature and characteristics of decision making in organisational contexts, state the factors that contribute to less than satisfactory decision being taken, and recognise the application of decision analysis to improved managerial decision making.
• Recognise the integration of quantitative and behavioural issues associated with managerial judgment and decision making.
• Recognise the relationship between problem solving and decision analysis, and their links to business analysis and requirements analysis.
• Identify key components of a business problem, such as multiple objectives, conflicting objectives, environmental uncertainty, rapid change, inadequate information sources, and be able to match appropriate structured decision analysis approaches to particular problem types.
• Explain the potential benefits, risks, limitations, and range of organisational and managerial issues associated with decision analysis.
• Apply and evaluate decision analysis techniques to business problems and cases, and appropriately utilise computer aided techniques to support the analysis process.

Teaching Methods:

Lecture (24 hrs), Tutorial/Seminar/Laboratory (12 hrs)

Assessment:

Assignments, Examinations

Generic Skills Outcomes:

The graduate attributes which relate to this unit of study help to produce graduates who:

• Are capable in their chosen professional areas.
• Are adaptable and manage change.
• Operate effectively in work and community situations.
• Are aware of environments.
• Are entrepreneurial.

Content:

• Nature of decision making in complex, uncertain and turbulent business environments.
• Dealing with multiple , often conflicting perspectives of what constitutes the problem, and multiple objectives in terms of problem improvement, and the role of decision analysis in supporting the decision making process.
• Introduction to basic probability, decision making under uncertainty.
• Introduction to a range of decision analysis approaches drawn from: moving averages, exponential smoothing. Weighted Factors Analysis. Basic MCDM. Decision trees. Basic Decision theory. Group decision making approaches. Social judgment theory. Sensitivity analysis. Utility theory.
• Appropriate use of quantitative decision analysis techniques, mixing quantitative and qualitative approaches.
• Scenario planning, and its contribution to decision making under uncertainty and complexity.

Reading Materials:

Goodwin, P & Wright, G, Decision Analysis for Management Judgment. 3rd edn, New York, Wiley, 2004.
Rosenhead, J & Mingers, J (eds), Rational Analysis for a Problematic World Revisited: Problem Structuring Methods for Complexity, Uncertainty and Conflict, 2nd edn, Wiley, 2001.